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June 3, 2006
This Week's Stocks


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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Makes a 
33% Move in 8 Days

Two stock charts and Two Graphics appear below. The first chart shows how the stock looked when we sent it out as a Stock Alert buy recommendation on the morning of April 28th, 2006.  The second chart shows the resulting price move of 33% in 8 days!  The purpose of these charts and graphics is not only to promote our FloatCharts.com Subscription Service but also to demonstrate the principles of Float Analysis and the power of Float Charts. 

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Float Turnover Theory (The Basics) - When a company comes public it issues shares outstanding.  The management always holds some percentage of these shares.  What's left over and is sold to the public, is called the float or floating supply.  Float Charts are all about tracking the floating supply in an attempt to see where the smart money is buying and selling. The gray rectangle on a Float Chart is known as a Float Turnover.  It shows the least amount of time it takes for the entire float to change hands once.  The total amount of shares traded during the float turnover equals the floating supply.  We simply add up the number of shares that traded over a given time frame until it equals a stock's publicly accessible float number.   Imagine a stock's price that goes sideways for one float turnover (like the stock below)  The idea here is that during the sideways move new ownership has bought the float hoping that the price will move higher.  Once the float is accumulated and held tight, any new demand drives the price upward.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Overhead Support Formation

On April 27th 2006, CMG returned to the same $48 price level that it had first reached 31 days earlier on March 14th, 2005. This brought its price down to its lower float channel line.  This implied at least two major possibilities.  Either the ownership in the float turnover above the April 27th price had bought at exactly the wrong time and their losing positions would only get worse or the ownership above the April 27th price would  hold their shares tightly and the price would rise up and away.  Notice that on April 27th the stock gave a bullish signal by closing higher than its open. With strong fundamentals and a positive outlook for expansion of the business, I sent out a stock alert buy recommendation for CMG.  In the next 9 days it moved 33% and still looks good to move higher.

Who says you can't time the market!

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 33% Move in 9 Days!
 



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Our stock picks are based on the ideas found in Steve's book Float Analysis, Powerful Technical Indicators Using Price and Volume (Wiley, 2002). The book's former title was The Precision Profit Float Indicator (Marketplace Books, 2000).

 


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