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September 9, 2006      
This Week's Stocks


Listen to Steve

Holly Corp. (HOC)
an Oil & Gas Refining Company
Just Made a Float Turnover Top Formation
With Its Breakdown on Heavy Volume
During the Week Ending Sept. 1st, 2006
(See Chart Below)

The Questions to Consider Are...

Did the Smart Money Just Sell At The Top?
Did the Dumb Money Just Buy At The Top?
Has the Long Term Trend Changed?

(Read More Below)

During the week ending Friday September 1st, Holly Corp. moved lower on heavy volume and made a float turnover at a top formation when it broke below its lower float channel line.  It briefly tried to move higher but ran into resistance and continued moving lower.  This is the first time in over 6 years (!) that Holly Corp. has moved below its lower float channel line and had this type of price, volume and float turnover breakdown action!

Feel free to share this stock report with others.

Float Turnover Theory (The Basics) - When a company comes public it issues shares outstanding.  The management always holds some percentage of these shares.  What's left over and is sold to the public, is called the float or floating supply.  Float Charts are all about tracking the floating supply in an attempt to see where The Smart Money is buying and selling. The gray rectangle on a Float Chart is known as a Float Turnover and changes from day to day much like a moving average.   It shows the least amount of time it takes for the entire float to change hands once.  The total amount of shares traded during the float turnover equals the floating supply.  We simply add up the number of shares that traded over a given time frame until it equals a stock's publicly accessible float number.   Imagine a stock's price that goes sideways for one float turnover right at the top of an uptrend and then breaks to the downside. The idea here is that during the sideways move new ownership (The DUMB Money) has bought the float hoping that the price will move higher.  Once a large percentage of the float has been distributed and there are no more buyers then prices move lower due to lack of demand.

Will Holly Corp Move Lower From Here?
Probably Not,
It will most likely move higher first before its down trend resumes.
It's Likely to Hit Resistance in a Few Days
and then Move Lower...Only Time Will Tell!

A float turnover breakdown is not necessarily a sell signal. It's an early sign that the long term trend has ended and that it will most likely move lower. Whenever any stock makes a long term top, turns around and heads lower it always leaves a float turnover right at the top. What this means is that Float Charts have predictive value in determining when long term trends in price have changed.

 

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