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November 18, 2006      


This Week's Stock Pick


Hot Topic (HOTT)
Breakout on Big Volume

HOTT has been in a long decline for almost two years.  Twice in August of this year it gapped lower on strong capitulation volume.  Now this week on Thursday (November 16, 2006), HOTT blasted higher and gapped above its top float channel line on very strong volume.  Big volume breakouts like this often head higher but they have also been known to be short covering rallies that fizzle.  The safest time to buy it would be on a pull back to its 25% or 50% float channel line.

This Week's Chart Lesson

NetIQ Inc. (NTIQ)
Breakout on Big Volume with a Pull Back Just Under Its 25% Float Channel Line
NTIQ made a similar breakout formation to Hot Topic Inc. (HOTT) back in 2003.  It gapped higher on strong volume, moved up for a number of days but eventually pulled back and found support just under its 25% float channel line.

Will HOTT be like NTIQ?  Only time will tell.

See both charts below!

 

When a stock's price has been in a long decline and then rises far enough to penetrate its upper float channel line, there are three possibilities ahead.  1) The most likely possibility is that the upper float channel line will act as resistance and the price will immediately head lower.  2) The second possibility is that as the price moves lower it will find support at either its 25%, 50% or the lowest (100%) float channel line.  If this happens there is a strong probability that the stock will put in a bottom and the long term trend will change from down to up.  3) The third possibility is that the upper float line has lost all resistance capability and the price will easily continue to move higher.  This is the least likely scenario.  Thinking that a penetration of the upper float line is a buy signal is a mistake and will easily lead to losses in your portfolio.

Always remember, you never ever truly know what a stock will do tomorrow.  This is because stock movement is not a mechanical process.  Stocks move based on the decisions of human beings and predicting human decisions is never certain.  If a large number of the people owning the stock mentioned above were to decide tomorrow that they wanted to sell then the stock could easily sell off.  If a large number of people decide to buy then this stock could easily blast higher.  It all depends on the decisions of people.

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