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November 24, 2006      


This Week's Stock Pick


Labrance & Co (LAB)
Capitulation Volume with Breakout on Strong Volume

LAB was in a downtrend since April of this year.  On July 7th and October 16th it dropped lower on heavy capitulation volume.  It then turned around and headed higher.  This past Wednesday, November 22nd, it jumped above it upper float channel line on heavy volume.  Capitulation bottoms followed by big volume breakouts usually lead to higher prices.

This Week's Chart Lesson

Neoware Inc. (NWRE)
Capitulation Volume with Breakout on Strong Volume
NWRE is a stock that made a similar bottom pattern to Labrance & Co.  It experienced heavy capitulation volume, turned around and headed higher with a strong volume breakout.  In the next couple of months it almost doubled.

Will LAB be like NWRE?  Only time will tell.

See both charts below!

 

When a stock's price has been in a long decline and then rises far enough to penetrate its upper float channel line, there are three possibilities ahead.  1) The most likely possibility is that the upper float channel line will act as resistance and the price will immediately head lower.  2) The second possibility is that as the price moves lower it will find support at either its 25%, 50% or the lowest (100%) float channel line.  If this happens there is a strong probability that the stock will put in a bottom and the long term trend will change from down to up.  3) The third possibility is that the upper float line has lost all resistance capability and the price will easily continue to move higher.  This is the least likely scenario.  Thinking that a penetration of the upper float line is a buy signal is a mistake and will easily lead to losses in your portfolio.

Always remember, you never ever truly know what a stock will do tomorrow.  This is because stock movement is not a mechanical process.  Stocks move based on the decisions of human beings and predicting human decisions is never certain.  If a large number of the people owning the stock mentioned above were to decide tomorrow that they wanted to sell then the stock could easily sell off.  If a large number of people decide to buy then this stock could easily blast higher.  It all depends on the decisions of people.

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